Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Mavericks (55%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (43%) · Cavaliers at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
7
Cavaliers 43%
$2.7K
-$21.73
47.5¢ → 45¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Mavericksavg 53¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$44.62 | 50% 2522-2477 (4999) |
73 739633786CTR | Cavaliersavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$48.24 | 11% 24-203 (227) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cavaliersavg 49.4¢ | $279.62 | $249.73 | -$24.89 | 53% 1348-1174 (2522) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Mavericksavg 50¢ | $60 | $64.8 | +$4.8 | 36% 946-1667 (2613) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Mavericksavg 50¢ | $28.2 | $30.46 | +$2.26 | 36% 930-1642 (2572) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.5 | -$0.4 | 41% 693-1010 (1703) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Mavericksavg 53¢ | $3.31 | $3.43 | +$0.12 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
Invested
$1,182.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$44.62
Record
50%
2522-2477 (4999)
Invested
$1,133.64
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$48.24
Record
11%
24-203 (227)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$279.62
Value
$249.73
PnL
-$24.89
Record
53%
1348-1174 (2522)
Invested
$60
Value
$64.8
PnL
+$4.8
Record
36%
946-1667 (2613)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$30.46
PnL
+$2.26
Record
36%
930-1642 (2572)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
41%
693-1010 (1703)
Invested
$3.31
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.12
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.