Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (36%) · Cavaliers at 52¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks49¢Cavaliers51¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 36%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$47.07

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 51.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks49%

Cavaliers52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks9 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares16,205

Combined PnL+$660.88

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares14,593

Combined PnL-$613.81

Mavericks — 64%Cavaliers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WA Wal1CTR	Mavericksavg 43.3¢	$5.6K	$6.2K	+$663.24	— 17-0 (17)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cavaliersavg 56.5¢	$5.5K	$5.0K	-$485.29	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
HI hi774c	Cavaliersavg 57¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$154.96	23% 187-633 (820)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Mavericksavg 50¢	$847.19	$822.51	-$24.68	17% 24-117 (141)
VE Venusian	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$745.1	$767.45	+$22.35	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mavericksavg 47¢	$332.09	$342.69	+$10.6	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mavericksavg 48.7¢	$295.9	$294.41	-$1.49	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
BA Bagwell306	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$255	$257.5	+$2.5	33% 70-139 (209)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45.2¢	$69.65	$74.71	+$5.06	47% 985-1122 (2107)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 46.3¢	$52.78	$55.27	+$2.49	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Cavaliersavg 50¢	$53.24	$54.84	+$1.6	43% 198-262 (460)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$8.23	$10.51	+$2.28	18% 59-270 (329)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$7.73	$9.97	+$2.24	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 39¢	$4.68	$5.82	+$1.14	35% 520-947 (1467)

Wal1CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$5,580.45

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$663.24

Record

—

17-0 (17)

HomeRunHazard

Cavaliers

Invested

$5,470

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$485.29

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

hi774c

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,606

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$154.96

Record

23%

187-633 (820)

DolphinBallerCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$847.19

Value

$822.51

PnL

-$24.68

Record

17%

24-117 (141)

Venusian

Cavaliers

Invested

$745.1

Value

$767.45

PnL

+$22.35

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

MadridTimeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$332.09

Value

$342.69

PnL

+$10.6

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

LightParadoxCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$295.9

Value

$294.41

PnL

-$1.49

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Bagwell306

Cavaliers

Invested

$255

Value

$257.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

33%

70-139 (209)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$69.65

Value

$74.71

PnL

+$5.06

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

LimousinCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$52.78

Value

$55.27

PnL

+$2.49

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

NatoAlfista<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$53.24

Value

$54.84

PnL

+$1.6

Record

43%

198-262 (460)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$8.23

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$2.28

Record

18%

59-270 (329)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.73

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$2.24

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$1.14

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 67% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Mavericks 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.