Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (56%) · Cavaliers at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks45¢Cavaliers55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 56%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$107.01

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks45%

Cavaliers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,130

Combined PnL+$74.22

Mavericks4 traders

Total Value$189.11

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$32.79

Cavaliers — 56%Mavericks — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$59.43	22% 179-619 (798)
VeryLucky888	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$270	$277.5	+$7.5	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Mavericksavg 34¢	$115.6	$142.8	+$27.2	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
BA Bagwell306	Cavaliersavg 52¢	$113.04	$120.65	+$7.61	33% 69-137 (206)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40.8¢	$21.99	$23.97	+$1.98	37% 996-1715 (2711)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$13.91	$16.69	+$2.78	47% 936-1037 (1973)
0xheavy888<$100	Cavaliersavg 53.7¢	$16.1	$16.65	+$0.55	54% 503-422 (925)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 38¢	$4.83	$5.66	+$0.83	46% 499-597 (1096)
SU suntori<$100	Cavaliersavg 85¢	$4.76	$3.89	-$0.87	46% 2762-3273 (6035)

hi774c

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$59.43

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

VeryLucky888

Cavaliers

Invested

$270

Value

$277.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

FlaznorpCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$115.6

Value

$142.8

PnL

+$27.2

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Bagwell306

Cavaliers

Invested

$113.04

Value

$120.65

PnL

+$7.61

Record

33%

69-137 (206)

VenusianCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$21.99

Value

$23.97

PnL

+$1.98

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.91

Value

$16.69

PnL

+$2.78

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

0xheavy888<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$16.1

Value

$16.65

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4.83

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.83

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

suntori<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$4.76

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$0.87

Record

46%

2762-3273 (6035)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.