Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (20%) · Mavericks at 53¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

Mavericks53¢Cavaliers47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$81.05

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks53%

Cavaliers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,673

Combined PnL+$53.34

Cavaliers8 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,458

Combined PnL-$134.39

Mavericks — 20%Cavaliers — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RJ RJW1	Mavericksavg 52¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$53.34	46% 118-141 (259)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$218.51	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$23.46
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 46¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$195.05
AY ay118CTR	Cavaliersavg 54¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$142.2	28% 38-97 (135)
73 739633786CTR	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$10.72	11% 24-203 (227)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 48.5¢	$342.7	$335.95	-$6.75	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
TX txwd9991CTR	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$289.5	$292.51	+$3.02	10% 9-83 (92)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$243.32	$242.27	-$1.05	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 49¢	$171.5	$169.75	-$1.75
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 51¢	$71.82	$72.52	+$0.7
GC GC-PCTR	Cavaliersavg 48.3¢	$199	$199.82	+$0.82	37% 353-603 (956)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$12	$12.13	+$0.13	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 48¢	$3.41	$3.44	+$0.04	42% 995-1363 (2358)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.5	-$0.15	41% 694-1010 (1704)
MA MadridTime<$100	Mavericksavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.35	+$0	37% 970-1635 (2605)

RJW1

Mavericks

Invested

$5,547.23

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$53.34

Record

46%

118-141 (259)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,883.35

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$218.51

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$2,252.0548¢+$23.46

Mavericks$1,631.346¢+$195.05

ay118CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,919.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$142.2

Record

28%

38-97 (135)

739633786CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,029.12

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.72

Record

11%

24-203 (227)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$342.7

Value

$335.95

PnL

-$6.75

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

txwd9991CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$289.5

Value

$292.51

PnL

+$3.02

Record

10%

9-83 (92)

NM-PARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$243.32

Value

$242.27

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$171.549¢-$1.75

Mavericks$71.8251¢+$0.7

GC-PCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$199

Value

$199.82

PnL

+$0.82

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$12

Value

$12.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.44

PnL

+$0.04

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

694-1010 (1704)

MadridTime<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

2 of 10 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.