Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Cavaliers (59%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Mavericks (-10.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (100%) · Mavericks at 42¢ · $641 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
6
Mavericks 100%
$640.95
$41.95
39.1¢ → 41.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 42%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 59%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $209.85 | $209.85 | +$0 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Mavericksavg 33.7¢ | $145.38 | $181.15 | +$35.77 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $116.34 | $114.96 | -$1.39 | 56% 3718-2886 (6604) |
VE VenusianCTR | Mavericksavg 40¢ | $105.8 | $111.17 | +$5.38 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 42¢ | $17.73 | $17.52 | -$0.21 | 56% 541-433 (974) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 26¢ | $3.9 | $6.3 | +$2.4 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
Invested
$209.85
Value
$209.85
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
Invested
$145.38
Value
$181.15
PnL
+$35.77
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$116.34
Value
$114.96
PnL
-$1.39
Record
56%
3718-2886 (6604)
Invested
$105.8
Value
$111.17
PnL
+$5.38
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$17.73
Value
$17.52
PnL
-$0.21
Record
56%
541-433 (974)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$6.3
PnL
+$2.4
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.