Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 59¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$35.8
54.6¢ → 58.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.1¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$134.05 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
 nehcnehcCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$96.19 | 36% 63-110 (173) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 58.8¢ | $838.19 | $833.63 | -$4.57 | 50% 760-746 (1506) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $132.9 | $134.52 | +$1.62 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $202.65 | $123.4 | +$18.1 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53¢ | $74.2 | $81.9 | +$17.6 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41¢ | $41 | $41.5 | +$0.5 | |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $71.75 | $72.63 | +$0.88 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $66.25 | $66.25 | +$0 | 53% 1989-1729 (3718) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $10.6 | $10.6 | +$0 | 56% 693-539 (1232) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $1.41 | $1.41 | +$0 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
Invested
$2,248.49
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$134.05
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$2,282
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$96.19
Record
36%
63-110 (173)
nigiri99Invested
$838.19
Value
$833.63
PnL
-$4.57
Record
50%
760-746 (1506)
Invested
$132.9
Value
$134.52
PnL
+$1.62
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
Invested
$202.65
Value
$123.4
PnL
+$18.1
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.75
Value
$72.63
PnL
+$0.88
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$66.25
Value
$66.25
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1989-1729 (3718)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.6
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
693-539 (1232)
Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.