Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Mavericks vs. Celtics: O/U 219.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 67%
$7.4K
-$126.69
51.6¢ → 49.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 51.9¢ | $3.9K | $3.7K | -$169.99 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
 nehcnehc | Overavg 50¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$24.23 | 36% 63-110 (173) |
VE Venusian | Overavg 48¢ | $615.65 | $641.3 | +$25.65 | 38% 1342-2205 (3547) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $175 | $173.25 | -$1.75 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $175 | $173.25 | -$1.75 | 42% 548-747 (1295) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $150.5 | $149 | -$1.5 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 51.4¢ | $44.75 | $43.07 | -$1.69 | 50% 2177-2197 (4374) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 48.8¢ | $23.8 | $24.16 | +$0.36 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $2.87 | $2.61 | -$0.26 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
Invested
$3,881.55
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$169.99
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
nehcnehcInvested
$2,422.73
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$24.23
Record
36%
63-110 (173)
Invested
$615.65
Value
$641.3
PnL
+$25.65
Record
38%
1342-2205 (3547)
Invested
$175
Value
$173.25
PnL
-$1.75
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Invested
$175
Value
$173.25
PnL
-$1.75
Record
42%
548-747 (1295)
Invested
$150.5
Value
$149
PnL
-$1.5
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$44.75
Value
$43.07
PnL
-$1.69
Record
50%
2177-2197 (4374)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$24.16
PnL
+$0.36
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.