Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Celtics (72%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (83%) · Mavericks at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
6
Mavericks 83%
$1.1K
$138.01
30¢ → 28.5¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Mavericksavg 30¢ | $780.7 | $897.81 | +$117.11 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Mavericksavg 30¢ | $98.7 | $113.51 | +$14.81 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 30¢ | $26.22 | $30.15 | +$3.93 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 32¢ | $11.76 | $12.68 | +$0.92 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 30¢ | $8.4 | $9.66 | +$1.26 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Celticsavg 71¢ | $1.42 | $1.41 | -$0.01 | 50% 760-746 (1506) |
Invested
$780.7
Value
$897.81
PnL
+$117.11
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$98.7
Value
$113.51
PnL
+$14.81
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$26.22
Value
$30.15
PnL
+$3.93
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$12.68
PnL
+$0.92
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.66
PnL
+$1.26
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0.01
Record
50%
760-746 (1506)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.