Spread: Celtics (-26.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (27%) · Celtics at 62¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics62¢Mavericks38¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 27%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$30.36

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 61.5¢

+36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics62%

Mavericks39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,872

Combined PnL+$279.79

Mavericks8 traders

Total Value$668.85

Total Shares1,700

Combined PnL-$249.44

Celtics — 27%Mavericks — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (11 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 52¢	$520	$615	+$95	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
BI biying88888CTR	Mavericksavg 48.2¢	$524.88	$419.65	-$105.23	44% 269-349 (618)
RN1	Celticsavg 49.5¢	$251.27	$312.31	+$61.03	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
VE Venusian	Celticsavg 21¢	$76.44	$200.2	+$123.76	39% 1528-2435 (3963)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Mavericksavg 48.7¢	$198.24	$156.84	-$41.4	38% 1508-2415 (3923)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 48¢	$48.48	$38.88	-$9.59	38% 1525-2471 (3996)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 22.6¢	$27.82	$32.07	+$3.59	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 55.1¢	$257.46	$13.73	-$93.27	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$3.72	$3.18	-$0.54	49% 2963-3069 (6032)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 65¢	$4.33	$2.56	-$1.76	39% 1837-2824 (4661)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 63¢	$3.15	$1.93	-$1.22	46% 1095-1292 (2387)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$520

Value

$615

PnL

+$95

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

biying88888CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$524.88

Value

$419.65

PnL

-$105.23

Record

44%

269-349 (618)

RN1

Celtics

Invested

$251.27

Value

$312.31

PnL

+$61.03

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

Venusian

Celtics

Invested

$76.44

Value

$200.2

PnL

+$123.76

Record

39%

1528-2435 (3963)

MadridTimeCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$198.24

Value

$156.84

PnL

-$41.4

Record

38%

1508-2415 (3923)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$48.48

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$9.59

Record

38%

1525-2471 (3996)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$27.82

Value

$32.07

PnL

+$3.59

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$257.46

Value

$13.73

PnL

-$93.27

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$0.54

Record

49%

2963-3069 (6032)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$4.33

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$1.76

Record

39%

1837-2824 (4661)

lryyyCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$3.15

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$1.22

Record

46%

1095-1292 (2387)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Celtics) and the top 1000 (11 on Mavericks) disagree here.

ctrMavericks 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.