Spread: Celtics (-16.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (33%) · Mavericks at 53¢ · $988 held · ends Nov 15

Celtics48¢Mavericks52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 33%

Total Value

$988.12

Combined PnL

$28.99

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 52.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics48%

Mavericks53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$435.38

Total Shares797

Combined PnL-$16.8

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$552.73

Total Shares1,165

Combined PnL+$45.79

Mavericks — 33%Celtics — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Mavericksavg 57¢	$290.6	$267.75	-$22.85	56% 693-539 (1232)
nigiri99CTR	Celticsavg 44.2¢	$156.12	$167.67	+$11.55	50% 760-746 (1506)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Celticsavg 43¢	$128.17	$141.58	+$13.41	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 43¢	$120.11	$132.68	+$12.57	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
38 38791873984189	Mavericksavg 57¢	$120.84	$128.26	+$7.42	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Celticsavg 43¢	$65.62	$72.49	+$6.87	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mavericksavg 54.3¢	$40.75	$39.38	-$1.38	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Celticsavg 45.4¢	$33.56	$35.15	+$1.59	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Celticsavg 42¢	$3.36	$3.16	-$0.2	44% 349-436 (785)

0xheavy888

Mavericks

Invested

$290.6

Value

$267.75

PnL

-$22.85

Record

56%

693-539 (1232)

nigiri99CTR

Celtics

Invested

$156.12

Value

$167.67

PnL

+$11.55

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

MadridTimeCTR

Celtics

Invested

$128.17

Value

$141.58

PnL

+$13.41

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$120.11

Value

$132.68

PnL

+$12.57

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

38791873984189

Mavericks

Invested

$120.84

Value

$128.26

PnL

+$7.42

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

VenusianCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$65.62

Value

$72.49

PnL

+$6.87

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Pan9X<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$40.75

Value

$39.38

PnL

-$1.38

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LimousinCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$33.56

Value

$35.15

PnL

+$1.59

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.16

PnL

-$0.2

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.