Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Mavericks (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-15.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (63%) · Celtics at 46¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
8
Celtics 63%
$300.61
-$3.07
43.6¢ → 45.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 45¢ | $81.59 | $82.5 | +$0.91 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 42¢ | $66.05 | $71.56 | +$5.5 | 53% 1923-1675 (3598) |
38 38791873984189 | Mavericksavg 57¢ | $167.66 | $48.6 | -$7.94 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Mavericksavg 57.3¢ | $43.57 | $34.88 | -$2.21 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 43¢ | $26.84 | $28.09 | +$1.25 | 38% 1353-2203 (3556) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Mavericksavg 56.5¢ | $22.6 | $21.8 | -$0.8 | 56% 679-534 (1213) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 44.3¢ | $9.74 | $10 | +$0.26 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 46¢ | $3.22 | $3.19 | -$0.04 | 38% 1375-2257 (3632) |
Invested
$81.59
Value
$82.5
PnL
+$0.91
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$66.05
Value
$71.56
PnL
+$5.5
Record
53%
1923-1675 (3598)
Invested
$167.66
Value
$48.6
PnL
-$7.94
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$43.57
Value
$34.88
PnL
-$2.21
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$28.09
PnL
+$1.25
Record
38%
1353-2203 (3556)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$22.6
Value
$21.8
PnL
-$0.8
Record
56%
679-534 (1213)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.26
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.19
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
1375-2257 (3632)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.