Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Mavericks (54%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (88%) · Celtics at 46¢ · $647 held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
8
Celtics 88%
$647.45
$2.07
47¢ → 46¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Mavericks 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Celticsavg 47¢ | $235 | $216.04 | -$2.32 | 53% 1883-1643 (3526) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Mavericksavg 52.5¢ | $202.07 | $202.13 | +$0.05 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $75.08 | $76.68 | +$1.6 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 46.9¢ | $66.64 | $68.14 | +$1.5 | 48% 3948-4293 (8241) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $39.79 | $40.64 | +$0.85 | 47% 1186-1358 (2544) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $17.39 | $17.76 | +$0.37 | 50% 2174-2194 (4368) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $16.64 | $16.46 | -$0.18 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $9.4 | $9.6 | +$0.2 | 56% 663-529 (1192) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$235
Value
$216.04
PnL
-$2.32
Record
53%
1883-1643 (3526)
Invested
$202.07
Value
$202.13
PnL
+$0.05
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$75.08
Value
$76.68
PnL
+$1.6
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$66.64
Value
$68.14
PnL
+$1.5
Record
48%
3948-4293 (8241)
Invested
$39.79
Value
$40.64
PnL
+$0.85
Record
47%
1186-1358 (2544)
Invested
$17.39
Value
$17.76
PnL
+$0.37
Record
50%
2174-2194 (4368)
Invested
$16.64
Value
$16.46
PnL
-$0.18
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
663-529 (1192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.