Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (22%) · Celtics at 98¢ · $660 held · ended Nov 15

Celtics98¢Mavericks2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 22%

Total Value

$660.08

Combined PnL

$0.11

Smart Money Entry

61.2¢ → 98¢

+60% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics98%

Mavericks2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$395.75

Total Shares623

Combined PnL+$14.2

Mavericks7 traders

Total Value$264.33

Total Shares727

Combined PnL-$14.09

Celtics — 22%Mavericks — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Celticsavg 60.7¢	$276.44	$289.08	+$12.63	36% 26-47 (73)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Mavericksavg 39¢	$128.7	$118.8	-$9.9	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
OD Oddstorm	Celticsavg 62.6¢	$105.11	$106.67	+$1.57	37% 165-280 (445)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37.9¢	$80.89	$76.9	-$3.99	46% 1257-1451 (2708)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$39.89	$40.43	+$0.54	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 39.2¢	$14.99	$13.76	-$1.22	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$12.51	$12.86	+$0.36	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 12¢	$0.92	$1.03	+$0.11	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 35¢	$0.54	$0.55	+$0.01	50% 4146-4137 (8283)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Celtics

Invested

$276.44

Value

$289.08

PnL

+$12.63

Record

36%

26-47 (73)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$128.7

Value

$118.8

PnL

-$9.9

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

Oddstorm

Celtics

Invested

$105.11

Value

$106.67

PnL

+$1.57

Record

37%

165-280 (445)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$80.89

Value

$76.9

PnL

-$3.99

Record

46%

1257-1451 (2708)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$39.89

Value

$40.43

PnL

+$0.54

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$14.99

Value

$13.76

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$12.51

Value

$12.86

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.03

PnL

+$0.11

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.