1H Spread: Celtics (-25.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (29%) · Celtics at 54¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Celtics54¢Mavericks46¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 53.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics54%

Mavericks47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,850

Combined PnL+$70.81

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$120.09

Total Shares2,402

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Mavericks — 71%Celtics — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Mavericksavg 50.9¢	$2.3K	$736.12	-$54.86	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
RN1ARB<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$404.31	$337.45	-$66.86	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 69¢	$178.02	$178.02	-$0
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 44¢	$226.29	$159.43	-$66.86
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Celticsavg 62¢	$221.43	$189.24	-$32.2	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 54¢	$97.43	$99.24	+$1.8
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 62¢	$124	$90	-$34
38 38791873984189CTR	Mavericksavg 33¢	$85	$120.63	+$49.4	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
US User7429CTR	Mavericksavg 32¢	$69.98	$120.27	+$50.3	44% 447-580 (1027)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Celticsavg 56.8¢	$1.4K	$119.49	$-1.2K	46% 166-193 (359)
dips.CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 31¢	$36.27	$64.35	+$28.08	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 36¢	$13.77	$11.67	-$2.1	49% 31-32 (63)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 61¢	$7.32	$0.6	-$6.72	50% 2305-2302 (4607)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$2,287.3

Value

$736.12

PnL

-$54.86

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

RN1ARB<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$404.31

Value

$337.45

PnL

-$66.86

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Celtics$178.0269¢-$0

Mavericks$226.2944¢-$66.86

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$221.43

Value

$189.24

PnL

-$32.2

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

Both legs:

Mavericks$97.4354¢+$1.8

Celtics$12462¢-$34

38791873984189CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$85

Value

$120.63

PnL

+$49.4

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

User7429CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$69.98

Value

$120.27

PnL

+$50.3

Record

44%

447-580 (1027)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Celtics

Invested

$1,357

Value

$119.49

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

46%

166-193 (359)

dips.CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$36.27

Value

$64.35

PnL

+$28.08

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.77

Value

$11.67

PnL

-$2.1

Record

49%

31-32 (63)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$6.72

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.