Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 223.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$4.2K
$42.92
51.8¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | +$27.2 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
IC ic4cream | Underavg 51¢ | $613.25 | $631.29 | +$18.04 | 2% 11-448 (459) |
SE sentrio | Underavg 52¢ | $293.43 | $296.25 | +$2.82 | 37% 341-573 (914) |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $170.03 | $168.25 | -$1.77 | 48% 101-110 (211) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $158.77 | $155.15 | -$3.62 | 48% 1332-1446 (2778) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $22.64 | $22.64 | +$0 | 54% 565-475 (1040) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $17.85 | $18.38 | +$0.52 | 67% 1645-796 (2441) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.4¢ | $17.89 | $17.58 | -$0.32 | 48% 662-711 (1373) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.35 | +$0.05 | 31% 380-865 (1245) |
Invested
$2,813.43
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$27.2
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$613.25
Value
$631.29
PnL
+$18.04
Record
2%
11-448 (459)
Invested
$293.43
Value
$296.25
PnL
+$2.82
Record
37%
341-573 (914)
Invested
$170.03
Value
$168.25
PnL
-$1.77
Record
48%
101-110 (211)
Invested
$158.77
Value
$155.15
PnL
-$3.62
Record
48%
1332-1446 (2778)
Invested
$22.64
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
565-475 (1040)
Invested
$17.85
Value
$18.38
PnL
+$0.52
Record
67%
1645-796 (2441)
Invested
$17.89
Value
$17.58
PnL
-$0.32
Record
48%
662-711 (1373)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
31%
380-865 (1245)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.