Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Knicks, while the market favors Cavaliers (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (50%) · Knicks at 34¢ · $506 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
4
Knicks 50%
1 arb excluded
$506.09
$4.77
33¢ → 33.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Cavaliersavg 62.5¢ | $417.96 | $285.17 | +$15.69 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
| └ Cavaliers leg | Cavaliersavg 62.5¢ | $209.31 | $224.45 | +$18.66 | |
| └ Knicks leg | Knicksavg 34.6¢ | $63.69 | $60.72 | -$2.97 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Knicksavg 33¢ | $157.41 | $157.41 | +$0 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Cavaliersavg 62.6¢ | $76.91 | $50.24 | +$4.42 | 48% 673-715 (1388) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 33¢ | $9.78 | $9.93 | +$0.15 | 51% 1853-1805 (3658) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Cavaliersavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.35 | +$0.2 | — 6-5 (11) |
Invested
$417.96
Value
$285.17
PnL
+$15.69
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Both legs:
Invested
$157.41
Value
$157.41
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$76.91
Value
$50.24
PnL
+$4.42
Record
48%
673-715 (1388)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$9.93
PnL
+$0.15
Record
51%
1853-1805 (3658)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.2
Record
—
6-5 (11)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.