Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (43%) · Cavaliers at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Cavaliers
7
Cavaliers 43%
$1.9K
$19.49
58¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCavaliers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Cavaliersavg 58¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$15.62 | 57% 3226-2432 (5658) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 38¢ | $33.44 | $36.08 | +$2.64 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 41¢ | $15.94 | $16.13 | +$0.19 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 39¢ | $13.69 | $14.4 | +$0.7 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Cavaliersavg 62¢ | $20.66 | $13.21 | +$0.15 | 49% 683-724 (1407) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Knicksavg 39¢ | $3.18 | $3.35 | +$0.16 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Cavaliersavg 58¢ | $2.9 | $2.93 | +$0.02 | 33% 317-631 (948) |
Invested
$1,811.34
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$15.62
Record
57%
3226-2432 (5658)
Invested
$33.44
Value
$36.08
PnL
+$2.64
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$15.94
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$0.19
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$13.69
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$20.66
Value
$13.21
PnL
+$0.15
Record
49%
683-724 (1407)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$0.16
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$2.9
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.02
Record
33%
317-631 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.