Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (55%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (50%) · Cavaliers at 46¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 12

Knicks55¢Cavaliers45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 50%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$26.09

Smart Money Entry

42.9¢ → 45.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks55%

Cavaliers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Knicks5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,856

Combined PnL-$174.42

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares9,623

Combined PnL+$200.51

Knicks — 50%Cavaliers — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Knicksavg 57¢	$4.3K	$3.8K	-$181.57	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$209.19	51% 455-429 (884)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Cavaliersavg 41¢	$350.77	$350.77	+$0	70% 1671-717 (2388)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Cavaliersavg 43¢	$175.22	$167.07	-$8.15	31% 381-851 (1232)
38 38791873984189<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$82.08	$84.96	+$2.88	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$61.55	$61.27	-$0.27	37% 346-578 (924)
PA Pan9X<$100	Knicksavg 56.3¢	$42.81	$44.84	+$2.03	48% 668-712 (1380)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Knicksavg 56¢	$39.97	$42.11	+$2.14	45% 263-319 (582)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 42¢	$10.57	$10.32	-$0.25	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Knicksavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.95	+$0.1	32% 291-617 (908)

HomeRunHazard

Knicks

Invested

$4,270.46

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$181.57

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,586.04

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$209.19

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

SunlineTickerCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$350.77

Value

$350.77

PnL

+$0

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

MadridTimeCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$175.22

Value

$167.07

PnL

-$8.15

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

38791873984189<$100

Knicks

Invested

$82.08

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$2.88

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

sentrioCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$61.55

Value

$61.27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

Pan9X<$100

Knicks

Invested

$42.81

Value

$44.84

PnL

+$2.03

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

SnakeBall<$100

Knicks

Invested

$39.97

Value

$42.11

PnL

+$2.14

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$10.57

Value

$10.32

PnL

-$0.25

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

ameisgoat11<$100

Knicks

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.95

PnL

+$0.1

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.