Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 107.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 50%
$2.2K
$341.4
54.4¢ → 40¢
-26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 40%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 48.5¢ | $896.5 | $1.2K | +$269 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 69¢ | $764.87 | $730 | -$34.87 | 55% 719-584 (1303) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $169.73 | $237.62 | +$67.89 | 59% 441-301 (742) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 31¢ | $36.63 | $65.58 | +$28.95 | 25% 117-356 (473) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 26.7¢ | $33.5 | $42.62 | +$9.12 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $2.75 | $4.07 | +$1.32 | 45% 257-309 (566) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$896.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$269
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$764.87
Value
$730
PnL
-$34.87
Record
55%
719-584 (1303)
Invested
$169.73
Value
$237.62
PnL
+$67.89
Record
59%
441-301 (742)
Invested
$36.63
Value
$65.58
PnL
+$28.95
Record
25%
117-356 (473)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$42.62
PnL
+$9.12
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$1.32
Record
45%
257-309 (566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.