Cavaliers vs. Hornets

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (38%) · Cavaliers at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 10

Cavaliers77¢Hornets23¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$161.21

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 76.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers77%

Hornets24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers6 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,232

Combined PnL+$64.45

Hornets10 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares8,272

Combined PnL-$225.66

Cavaliers — 38%Hornets — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Cavaliersavg 71¢	$3.3K	$1.8K	+$71.35	52% 47498-44700 (92198)
HI hi774cARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$9.87	46% 5660-6562 (12222)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 71¢	$610.71	$658.02	+$47.31
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 25.2¢	$559.14	$521.71	-$37.43
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 25.7¢	$962.23	$899.64	-$62.59	54% 20066-16931 (36997)
PU purplegatto	Cavaliersavg 76¢	$596.11	$600.04	+$3.92	49% 6677-6879 (13556)
OD Oddstorm	Cavaliersavg 77.1¢	$363.27	$356.4	-$10.96	48% 8346-8906 (17252)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Hornetsavg 27.5¢	$399.02	$340.66	-$58.36	50% 48656-48220 (96876)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Hornetsavg 29¢	$890.72	$218.23	-$40.08	47% 2266-2532 (4798)
SE sentrioCTR	Hornetsavg 25.5¢	$214.31	$197.21	-$17.11	50% 27997-27469 (55466)
LI LimousinCTR	Hornetsavg 28¢	$623.73	$152.81	-$22.14	48% 2283-2446 (4729)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 27.7¢	$1.4K	$134.61	-$16.9	48% 70392-76030 (146422)
GA Gaditima<$100	Cavaliersavg 76¢	$86.04	$85.45	-$0.59	47% 8677-9836 (18513)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 23.8¢	$86.35	$85.1	-$1.25	59% 52520-37212 (89732)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 27¢	$67.5	$61.25	-$6.25	45% 14446-17799 (32245)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 25.6¢	$11.77	$8.95	-$0.92	52% 27371-24877 (52248)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Cavaliersavg 73.5¢	$7.12	$7.63	+$0.51	51% 5742-5580 (11322)
RL RLWG<$100	Cavaliersavg 71¢	$5	$3.78	+$0.23	49% 8562-8739 (17301)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 26¢	$5	$1.23	-$0.08	52% 9544-8673 (18217)

Flaznorp

Cavaliers

Invested

$3,325.35

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$71.35

Record

52%

47498-44700 (92198)

hi774cARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,169.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$9.87

Record

46%

5660-6562 (12222)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$610.7171¢+$47.31

Hornets$559.1425.2¢-$37.43

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$962.23

Value

$899.64

PnL

-$62.59

Record

54%

20066-16931 (36997)

purplegatto

Cavaliers

Invested

$596.11

Value

$600.04

PnL

+$3.92

Record

49%

6677-6879 (13556)

Oddstorm

Cavaliers

Invested

$363.27

Value

$356.4

PnL

-$10.96

Record

48%

8346-8906 (17252)

SnakeBallCTR

Hornets

Invested

$399.02

Value

$340.66

PnL

-$58.36

Record

50%

48656-48220 (96876)

LightParadoxCTR

Hornets

Invested

$890.72

Value

$218.23

PnL

-$40.08

Record

47%

2266-2532 (4798)

sentrioCTR

Hornets

Invested

$214.31

Value

$197.21

PnL

-$17.11

Record

50%

27997-27469 (55466)

LimousinCTR

Hornets

Invested

$623.73

Value

$152.81

PnL

-$22.14

Record

48%

2283-2446 (4729)

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,402

Value

$134.61

PnL

-$16.9

Record

48%

70392-76030 (146422)

Gaditima<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$86.04

Value

$85.45

PnL

-$0.59

Record

47%

8677-9836 (18513)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$86.35

Value

$85.1

PnL

-$1.25

Record

59%

52520-37212 (89732)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$67.5

Value

$61.25

PnL

-$6.25

Record

45%

14446-17799 (32245)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$11.77

Value

$8.95

PnL

-$0.92

Record

52%

27371-24877 (52248)

6512395314597884<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$0.51

Record

51%

5742-5580 (11322)

RLWG<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

8562-8739 (17301)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

9544-8673 (18217)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCavaliers 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrCavaliers 50% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.