Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (68%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 235.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 32¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 3

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$579.05

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 32¢

-36% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares3,829

Combined PnL+$829.91

Under9 traders

Total Value$816.12

Total Shares2,299

Combined PnL-$250.86

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.2¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$540.08	47% 1176-1319 (2495)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 49¢	$465.26	$683.64	+$218.39	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
TO torta.tech	Underavg 47.7¢	$758.6	$445.76	-$312.84	62% 8331-5009 (13340)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Underavg 45.9¢	$371.28	$370.95	-$0.33	52% 605-551 (1156)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.9¢	$228.5	$251.16	+$22.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$142.78	$119.79	-$22.99
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 58¢	$287.68	$357.12	+$69.44	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 35.6¢	$173.47	$263.37	+$89.9	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$230.1	$211.08	-$4.94	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$174.97	$160.42	-$14.54
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.7¢	$41.8	$50.66	+$9.61
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 35¢	$53.9	$43.12	-$10.78	53% 11337-9944 (21281)
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$37.99	$22.29	-$15.71	53% 6201-5479 (11680)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$22.14	$20.86	-$1.28	54% 629-546 (1175)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$7.5	$9.5	+$2	50% 34946-34393 (69339)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 41¢	$9.25	$7.18	+$2.35	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 28¢	$5.9	$5.84	-$0.06	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 42¢	$7.35	$4.9	-$2.45	54% 626-537 (1163)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 28¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	48% 5733-6182 (11915)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$1,167.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$540.08

Record

47%

1176-1319 (2495)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$465.26

Value

$683.64

PnL

+$218.39

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$758.6

Value

$445.76

PnL

-$312.84

Record

62%

8331-5009 (13340)

VenusianARB<$100

Under

Invested

$371.28

Value

$370.95

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

605-551 (1156)

Both legs:

Under$228.545.9¢+$22.66

Over$142.7859¢-$22.99

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$287.68

Value

$357.12

PnL

+$69.44

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$173.47

Value

$263.37

PnL

+$89.9

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$230.1

Value

$211.08

PnL

-$4.94

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

Both legs:

Over$174.9754¢-$14.54

Under$41.841.7¢+$9.61

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$53.9

Value

$43.12

PnL

-$10.78

Record

53%

11337-9944 (21281)

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176<$100

Under

Invested

$37.99

Value

$22.29

PnL

-$15.71

Record

53%

6201-5479 (11680)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$22.14

Value

$20.86

PnL

-$1.28

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$9.5

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

34946-34393 (69339)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$9.25

Value

$7.18

PnL

+$2.35

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$7.35

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$2.45

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Under 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.