Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 221.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 78¢ · $802 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
1 arb excluded
$801.73
-$3.52
86.9¢ → 77.8¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 78%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 89.4¢ | $413.74 | $379.28 | -$34.46 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
LI LightParadox | Overavg 83¢ | $244.23 | $270.71 | +$26.48 | 54% 629-546 (1175) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $75.05 | $90.97 | +$15.92 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 79¢ | $62.41 | $67.03 | +$4.62 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 8¢ | $12.64 | $23.94 | +$11.3 | |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $22.63 | $28.57 | +$5.94 | 51% 4308-4133 (8441) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 88.4¢ | $11.27 | $10.82 | -$0.45 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $9.2 | +$0.8 | 50% 7275-7377 (14652) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $9.41 | $7.94 | -$1.47 | 54% 21772-18817 (40589) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.24 | -$0.36 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
Invested
$413.74
Value
$379.28
PnL
-$34.46
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$244.23
Value
$270.71
PnL
+$26.48
Record
54%
629-546 (1175)
Invested
$75.05
Value
$90.97
PnL
+$15.92
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.63
Value
$28.57
PnL
+$5.94
Record
51%
4308-4133 (8441)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.27
Value
$10.82
PnL
-$0.45
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
7275-7377 (14652)
Invested
$9.41
Value
$7.94
PnL
-$1.47
Record
54%
21772-18817 (40589)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.24
PnL
-$0.36
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.