Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 219.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$1.2K
-$40.3
86.7¢ → 83.3¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 87¢ | $810.29 | $770.24 | -$40.05 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 85¢ | $208.23 | $213.69 | +$3.28 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 87¢ | $175.74 | $175.74 | -$0 | 54% 626-537 (1163) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $38.28 | $38.28 | -$0 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $13.05 | $13.05 | -$0 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 13¢ | $0.7 | $0.64 | -$0.05 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | Underavg 16¢ | $13.92 | $0.48 | -$3.48 | 46% 7434-8639 (16073) |
Invested
$810.29
Value
$770.24
PnL
-$40.05
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$208.23
Value
$213.69
PnL
+$3.28
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
Invested
$175.74
Value
$175.74
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
626-537 (1163)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$38.28
Value
$38.28
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$13.05
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$0.64
PnL
-$0.05
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
Invested
$13.92
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$3.48
Record
46%
7434-8639 (16073)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.