Bulls vs. 76ers: O/U 211.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$1.6K
$4.42
93.9¢ → 97.1¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 94¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
FE ferdinand2 | Overavg 94¢ | $282.44 | $282.44 | -$0 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 92.8¢ | $144.77 | $142.7 | +$1.56 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Overavg 93.2¢ | $74.59 | $77.56 | +$2.97 | 54% 629-546 (1175) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $45 | $45 | -$0 | 54% 58447-50668 (109115) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $6.11 | $6.11 | -$0 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.5¢ | $1.4 | $1.29 | -$0.11 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
Invested
$1,032.63
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$282.44
Value
$282.44
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$144.77
Value
$142.7
PnL
+$1.56
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
Invested
$74.59
Value
$77.56
PnL
+$2.97
Record
54%
629-546 (1175)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
58447-50668 (109115)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.11
Value
$6.11
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.