Spread: 76ers (-5.5)

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (31%) · 76ers at 75¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3

76ers75¢Bulls25¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 31%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$42.83

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 75¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers75%

Bulls25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,087

Combined PnL+$322.34

Bulls9 traders

Total Value$453.67

Total Shares2,383

Combined PnL-$365.17

76ers — 31%Bulls — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-63 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBulls 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	76ersavg 60¢	$600	$785	+$185	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	76ersavg 65¢	$650	$785	+$135	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bullsavg 28.6¢	$464.04	$165.62	+$64.29	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
TA takeormakeCTR	Bullsavg 40¢	$408	$122.4	-$285.6	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
JU justaluckydude<$100	76ersavg 51¢	$82.33	$85.04	+$2.71	53% 11337-9944 (21281)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bullsavg 30¢	$176.38	$74.41	-$101.97	51% 21008-19991 (40999)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Bullsavg 28.1¢	$22.08	$31.4	+$2.65	50% 25084-24791 (49875)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Bullsavg 34.3¢	$56.96	$20.75	-$36.21	54% 629-546 (1175)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$10.27	$13.7	+$0.51	48% 5733-6182 (11915)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Bullsavg 28.7¢	$15.58	$10.24	+$3.27	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Bullsavg 49¢	$20.21	$7.84	-$12.37	54% 626-537 (1163)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Bullsavg 30¢	$5.49	$7.32	+$0.27	52% 6768-6135 (12903)
SU suntori<$100	76ersavg 69¢	$2.85	$2.48	-$0.37	45% 13208-16070 (29278)

6512395314597884

76ers

Invested

$600

Value

$785

PnL

+$185

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

76ers

Invested

$650

Value

$785

PnL

+$135

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

38791873984189CTR

Bulls

Invested

$464.04

Value

$165.62

PnL

+$64.29

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

takeormakeCTR

Bulls

Invested

$408

Value

$122.4

PnL

-$285.6

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

justaluckydude<$100

76ers

Invested

$82.33

Value

$85.04

PnL

+$2.71

Record

53%

11337-9944 (21281)

FlaznorpCTR

Bulls

Invested

$176.38

Value

$74.41

PnL

-$101.97

Record

51%

21008-19991 (40999)

sentrioCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$22.08

Value

$31.4

PnL

+$2.65

Record

50%

25084-24791 (49875)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$56.96

Value

$20.75

PnL

-$36.21

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$10.27

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$0.51

Record

48%

5733-6182 (11915)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$15.58

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$3.27

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$20.21

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$12.37

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$5.49

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0.27

Record

52%

6768-6135 (12903)

suntori<$100

76ers

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.37

Record

45%

13208-16070 (29278)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-63 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBulls 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.