Spread: 76ers (-27.5)
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (56%) · Bulls at 96¢ · $303 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Bulls
9
Bulls 56%
$302.94
-$1.95
91.2¢ → 96¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidBulls at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Bullsavg 91.4¢ | $142.44 | $146.04 | +$3.6 | 51% 21008-19991 (40999) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Bullsavg 91.8¢ | $37.51 | $37.58 | +$0.07 | 48% 5733-6182 (11915) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 10.7¢ | $46.21 | $35.16 | -$2.44 | 47% 13319-14853 (28172) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Bullsavg 89¢ | $29.19 | $28.77 | +$1.13 | 57% 17526-13092 (30618) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Bullsavg 91.3¢ | $26.41 | $25.77 | -$0.64 | 52% 6768-6135 (12903) |
DI dips.CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 14¢ | $11.48 | $9.02 | -$2.46 | 46% 7434-8639 (16073) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 14¢ | $11.48 | $9.02 | -$2.46 | 51% 4308-4133 (8441) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 8¢ | $5.26 | $6.51 | +$1.25 | 50% 1254-1267 (2521) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Bullsavg 92¢ | $5.06 | $5.06 | +$0 | 54% 629-546 (1175) |
Invested
$142.44
Value
$146.04
PnL
+$3.6
Record
51%
21008-19991 (40999)
Invested
$37.51
Value
$37.58
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
5733-6182 (11915)
Invested
$46.21
Value
$35.16
PnL
-$2.44
Record
47%
13319-14853 (28172)
Invested
$29.19
Value
$28.77
PnL
+$1.13
Record
57%
17526-13092 (30618)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.41
Value
$25.77
PnL
-$0.64
Record
52%
6768-6135 (12903)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$9.02
PnL
-$2.46
Record
46%
7434-8639 (16073)
Invested
$11.48
Value
$9.02
PnL
-$2.46
Record
51%
4308-4133 (8441)
Invested
$5.26
Value
$6.51
PnL
+$1.25
Record
50%
1254-1267 (2521)
Invested
$5.06
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
629-546 (1175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.