Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Bulls (61%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: 76ers (-13.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (70%) · 76ers at 40¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

76ers40¢Bulls60¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 70%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$10.81

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 39.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

76ers40%

Bulls61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,103

Combined PnL+$24.61

76ers7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,337

Combined PnL-$13.8

Bulls — 30%76ers — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Bullsavg 56¢	$769	$769	+$20.6	51% 4856-4597 (9453)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	76ersavg 42¢	$648.48	$640.76	-$7.72	62% 4298-2635 (6933)
LU LuckyLooCTR	76ersavg 43¢	$503.1	$491.4	-$5.85	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
UP UpTheBlues	Bullsavg 60¢	$418.2	$421.69	+$3.49	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	76ersavg 42¢	$210	$210	+$7.5	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 42¢	$183.96	$181.77	-$2.19	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
38 38791873984189CTR	76ersavg 40.5¢	$162.91	$158.79	-$4.12	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
RN1CTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$100	$98.75	-$1.25	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bullsavg 57.9¢	$18.93	$19.46	+$0.52	57% 17353-12958 (30311)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$13.22	$13.05	-$0.17	50% 25009-24731 (49740)

hi774c

Bulls

Invested

$769

Value

$769

PnL

+$20.6

Record

51%

4856-4597 (9453)

SunlineTickerCTR

76ers

Invested

$648.48

Value

$640.76

PnL

-$7.72

Record

62%

4298-2635 (6933)

LuckyLooCTR

76ers

Invested

$503.1

Value

$491.4

PnL

-$5.85

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

UpTheBlues

Bulls

Invested

$418.2

Value

$421.69

PnL

+$3.49

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

76ers

Invested

$210

Value

$210

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$183.96

Value

$181.77

PnL

-$2.19

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

38791873984189CTR

76ers

Invested

$162.91

Value

$158.79

PnL

-$4.12

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

RN1CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$100

Value

$98.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

ghorrock<$100

Bulls

Invested

$18.93

Value

$19.46

PnL

+$0.52

Record

57%

17353-12958 (30311)

sentrioCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$13.22

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$0.17

Record

50%

25009-24731 (49740)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Bulls 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.