Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$140.87

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 47.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,933

Combined PnL+$150.78

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,571

Combined PnL-$9.91

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 45.3¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$142.78	52% 602-565 (1167)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$8.97	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 44¢	$220	$227.5	+$7.5	50% 131-131 (262)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 54.8¢	$207.97	$206.82	-$1.15	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 54¢	$39.42	$39.79	+$0.37	49% 429-439 (868)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$15.06	$14.88	-$0.18	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$13.85	$14.32	+$0.47	45% 277-332 (609)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$3.9	$4.05	+$0.15	40% 131-200 (331)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.03	-$0.12	41% 708-1019 (1727)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 58¢	$1.02	$1.05	+$0.03	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$2,891.04

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$142.78

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,732.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$8.97

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$220

Value

$227.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$207.97

Value

$206.82

PnL

-$1.15

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$39.42

Value

$39.79

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.06

Value

$14.88

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.85

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$0.47

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

131-200 (331)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.12

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.