Bulls vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 57¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$268.4

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 57.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,755

Combined PnL+$312.61

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,029

Combined PnL-$44.21

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.2¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$185	56% 3718-2886 (6604)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52¢	$801.79	$886.59	+$84.8	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 45.2¢	$816.81	$785.54	-$31.26	49% 429-439 (868)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Underavg 48¢	$749.76	$741.95	-$7.81	46% 52-61 (113)
nigiri99	Overavg 53¢	$450.5	$488.75	+$38.25	52% 602-565 (1167)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$357.5	$356.25	-$1.25	56% 541-433 (974)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$111.62	$104.96	-$6.66	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
JO JoeyAroyyOO<$100	Overavg 53¢	$54.48	$59.11	+$4.63	50% 131-131 (262)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$43	$43.5	+$0.5	35% 166-306 (472)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47.7¢	$17.63	$17.57	-$0.07	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$11.7	$11.58	-$0.12	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$4.43	$4.39	-$0.04	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.53	-$0.08	41% 708-1019 (1727)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$2,261.86

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$185

Record

56%

3718-2886 (6604)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$801.79

Value

$886.59

PnL

+$84.8

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$816.81

Value

$785.54

PnL

-$31.26

Record

49%

429-439 (868)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Under

Invested

$749.76

Value

$741.95

PnL

-$7.81

Record

46%

52-61 (113)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$450.5

Value

$488.75

PnL

+$38.25

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$357.5

Value

$356.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$111.62

Value

$104.96

PnL

-$6.66

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

JoeyAroyyOO<$100

Over

Invested

$54.48

Value

$59.11

PnL

+$4.63

Record

50%

131-131 (262)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$43

Value

$43.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.63

Value

$17.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.58

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.43

Value

$4.39

PnL

-$0.04

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.