Spread: Timberwolves (-18.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (27%) · Bulls at 93¢ · $663 held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves8¢Bulls92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 27%

Total Value

$663.42

Combined PnL

-$26.55

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 92.5¢

+43% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves8%

Bulls93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls3 traders

Total Value$551.16

Total Shares619

Combined PnL+$170.73

Timberwolves8 traders

Total Value$112.26

Total Shares1,589

Combined PnL-$197.28

Bulls — 27%Timberwolves — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Bullsavg 60¢	$300	$440	+$140	56% 574-455 (1029)
SU suntori	Bullsavg 88¢	$95.23	$100.64	+$5.41	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Timberwolvesavg 11¢	$110	$60	-$50	55% 1770-1448 (3218)
nigiri99CTR	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$356.38	$26.51	-$68.87	51% 639-619 (1258)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$39.82	$10.68	-$29.13	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
38 38791873984189<$100	Bullsavg 58¢	$55.21	$10.52	+$25.32	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$42.58	$6.23	-$36.35	46% 558-656 (1214)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 12¢	$10.64	$5.32	-$5.32	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 11¢	$2.2	$1.2	-$1	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 12¢	$2.35	$1.17	-$1.17	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 40¢	$49.16	$1.14	-$5.43	54% 1641-1409 (3050)

0xheavy888

Bulls

Invested

$300

Value

$440

PnL

+$140

Record

56%

574-455 (1029)

suntori

Bulls

Invested

$95.23

Value

$100.64

PnL

+$5.41

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$110

Value

$60

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

1770-1448 (3218)

nigiri99CTR

Timberwolves

Invested

$356.38

Value

$26.51

PnL

-$68.87

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$39.82

Value

$10.68

PnL

-$29.13

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

38791873984189<$100

Bulls

Invested

$55.21

Value

$10.52

PnL

+$25.32

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$42.58

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$36.35

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$10.64

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$5.32

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.35

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$49.16

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$5.43

Record

54%

1641-1409 (3050)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 93%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTimberwolves 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedTimberwolves 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Timberwolves 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.