Spread: Timberwolves (-17.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bulls (44%) · Bulls at 94¢ · $991 held · ended Nov 15

Timberwolves6¢Bulls94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bulls

Consensus Traders

Bulls 44%

Total Value

$990.88

Combined PnL

$154.65

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 94.3¢

+58% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Timberwolves6%

Bulls94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bulls4 traders

Total Value$964.76

Total Shares992

Combined PnL+$170.34

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$26.12

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$15.69

Bulls — 44%Timberwolves — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Bullsavg 56¢	$442.3	$456.71	+$14.41	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
nigiri99	Bullsavg 56¢	$237.44	$373.12	+$135.68	51% 639-619 (1258)
SU suntori	Bullsavg 86¢	$99.99	$112.74	+$12.75	46% 2939-3486 (6425)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Bullsavg 56¢	$14.69	$22.2	+$7.51	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 8.3¢	$22.59	$13.71	-$8.87	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 8¢	$4	$6.3	+$2.3	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 12¢	$2.4	$2.4	+$0	56% 4102-3203 (7305)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 11.3¢	$8.13	$2.33	-$5.79	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Timberwolvesavg 41¢	$4.7	$1.37	-$3.32	47% 1065-1216 (2281)

Flaznorp

Bulls

Invested

$442.3

Value

$456.71

PnL

+$14.41

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

nigiri99

Bulls

Invested

$237.44

Value

$373.12

PnL

+$135.68

Record

51%

639-619 (1258)

suntori

Bulls

Invested

$99.99

Value

$112.74

PnL

+$12.75

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

ferdinand2<$100

Bulls

Invested

$14.69

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$7.51

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$22.59

Value

$13.71

PnL

-$8.87

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

4102-3203 (7305)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$8.13

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$5.79

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$4.7

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$3.32

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Research grade

AvoidBulls at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bulls

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bulls. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBulls 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBulls 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bulls 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bulls wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.