Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Suns (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Suns (-8.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (75%) · Hornets at 49¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Suns51¢Hornets49¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 75%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$116.76

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 49¢

-13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Suns51%

Hornets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets9 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,440

Combined PnL+$80.12

Suns3 traders

Total Value$187.58

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$36.64

Hornets — 75%Suns — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$72.59	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Hornetsavg 55¢	$860.86	$868.69	+$7.83	51% 2128-2072 (4200)
38 38791873984189CTR	Hornetsavg 56.3¢	$244.93	$210.94	-$2.95	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
SU suntori	Sunsavg 42¢	$145.7	$179.97	+$36.33	46% 1805-2097 (3902)
RN1CTR	Hornetsavg 55¢	$133.65	$134.87	+$1.22	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Hornetsavg 56.2¢	$126.34	$124.84	-$1.5	50% 3553-3509 (7062)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 57¢	$42.18	$43.29	+$1.11	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 55¢	$27.5	$27.75	+$0.25	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 57¢	$25.65	$26.33	+$0.68	39% 112-173 (285)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 57¢	$19.83	$15.58	+$0.91	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Sunsavg 43¢	$5.16	$5.22	+$0.06	54% 1122-947 (2069)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sunsavg 30¢	$2.14	$2.39	+$0.25	53% 1163-1023 (2186)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$2,758.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$72.59

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Hornets

Invested

$860.86

Value

$868.69

PnL

+$7.83

Record

51%

2128-2072 (4200)

38791873984189CTR

Hornets

Invested

$244.93

Value

$210.94

PnL

-$2.95

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

suntori

Suns

Invested

$145.7

Value

$179.97

PnL

+$36.33

Record

46%

1805-2097 (3902)

RN1CTR

Hornets

Invested

$133.65

Value

$134.87

PnL

+$1.22

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

6512395314597884CTR

Hornets

Invested

$126.34

Value

$124.84

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

3553-3509 (7062)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$42.18

Value

$43.29

PnL

+$1.11

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$27.5

Value

$27.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$25.65

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$0.68

Record

39%

112-173 (285)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$19.83

Value

$15.58

PnL

+$0.91

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Suns

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

ghorrock<$100

Suns

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSuns 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hornets 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.