Spread: Clippers (-3.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (71%) · Hornets at 63¢ · $641 held · ended Nov 15

Clippers37¢Hornets63¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$640.61

Combined PnL

$10.95

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 63¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clippers37%

Hornets63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers2 traders

Total Value$166.58

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$1.6

Hornets5 traders

Total Value$197.11

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$12.55

Clippers — 29%Hornets — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Hornetsavg 64¢	$194.72	$178.81	-$15.91	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 64¢	$127.98	$126.98	-$1
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 47¢	$66.74	$51.83	-$14.91
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Hornetsavg 49.1¢	$106.64	$98.11	+$12.15	57% 3689-2778 (6467)
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 49.1¢	$60.38	$77.5	+$17.12
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 46.4¢	$25.84	$20.61	-$4.97
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Clippersavg 37.8¢	$98.68	$95.39	-$3.29	49% 2903-2977 (5880)
MI micky456<$100	Hornetsavg 53¢	$69.96	$83.16	+$13.2	48% 654-715 (1369)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Clippersavg 41¢	$69.49	$71.19	+$1.69	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Hornetsavg 55.5¢	$56.14	$55.95	-$0.19	56% 4197-3286 (7483)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hornetsavg 58.7¢	$51.75	$50.1	-$1.65	50% 2219-2233 (4452)
MA MadridTime<$100	Hornetsavg 48¢	$3.81	$5	+$1.19	38% 1426-2282 (3708)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Hornetsavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0	43% 877-1157 (2034)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$194.72

Value

$178.81

PnL

-$15.91

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

Both legs:

Hornets$127.9864¢-$1

Clippers$66.7447¢-$14.91

takeormakeARB<$100

Hornets

Invested

$106.64

Value

$98.11

PnL

+$12.15

Record

57%

3689-2778 (6467)

Both legs:

Hornets$60.3849.1¢+$17.12

Clippers$25.8446.4¢-$4.97

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$98.68

Value

$95.39

PnL

-$3.29

Record

49%

2903-2977 (5880)

micky456<$100

Hornets

Invested

$69.96

Value

$83.16

PnL

+$13.2

Record

48%

654-715 (1369)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Clippers

Invested

$69.49

Value

$71.19

PnL

+$1.69

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Hornets

Invested

$56.14

Value

$55.95

PnL

-$0.19

Record

56%

4197-3286 (7483)

Pan9X<$100

Hornets

Invested

$51.75

Value

$50.1

PnL

-$1.65

Record

50%

2219-2233 (4452)

MadridTime<$100

Hornets

Invested

$3.81

Value

PnL

+$1.19

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

ameisgoat11<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

877-1157 (2034)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 63%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.2%

63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$53.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

153.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.