Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 216.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$3.7K
$29.2
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 52.8¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$29.41 | 53% 1841-1653 (3494) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $680 | $680 | +$0 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $329.16 | $333.92 | +$4.76 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 48¢ | $184.41 | $180.48 | -$3.93 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50¢ | $144.75 | $153.44 | +$8.69 | |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $235 | $235 | +$0 | 59% 3478-2368 (5846) |
GC GC-PCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $235 | $235 | +$0 | 21% 99-382 (481) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $9.91 | $9.71 | -$0.21 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
Invested
$2,213.35
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$29.41
Record
53%
1841-1653 (3494)
Invested
$680
Value
$680
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$329.16
Value
$333.92
PnL
+$4.76
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Both legs:
Invested
$235
Value
$235
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3478-2368 (5846)
Invested
$235
Value
$235
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
99-382 (481)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$9.71
PnL
-$0.21
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.