Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. Raptors: O/U 215.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
$6.2K
$12.92
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nehcnehcCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $3.7K | $3.7K | +$37.67 | 25% 21-63 (84) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 51¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$23.46 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $126.25 | -$1.25 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $14.34 | $14.32 | -$0.02 | 55% 581-483 (1064) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.53 | -$0.02 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
nehcnehcCTRInvested
$3,691.74
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$37.67
Record
25%
21-63 (84)
Invested
$2,393
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$23.46
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$126.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$14.34
Value
$14.32
PnL
-$0.02
Record
55%
581-483 (1064)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.