Spread: Raptors (-5.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (80%) · Celtics at 81¢ · $736 held · ends Nov 12

Raptors20¢Celtics80¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 80%

Total Value

$735.65

Combined PnL

$5.93

Smart Money Entry

81¢ → 80.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors20%

Celtics81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$659.65

Total Shares817

Combined PnL-$2.07

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$76

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$8

Celtics — 80%Raptors — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 81¢	$344.2	$342.13	-$2.07	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 81¢	$199.11	$199.11	+$0	48% 1310-1415 (2725)
SE sentrio<$100	Celticsavg 81¢	$76.29	$76.29	+$0	37% 340-570 (910)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 17¢	$68	$76	+$8	30% 373-863 (1236)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 81¢	$42.12	$42.12	+$0	48% 659-706 (1365)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$344.2

Value

$342.13

PnL

-$2.07

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$199.11

Value

$199.11

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1310-1415 (2725)

sentrio<$100

Celtics

Invested

$76.29

Value

$76.29

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

LimousinCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$68

Value

$76

PnL

+$8

Record

30%

373-863 (1236)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$42.12

Value

$42.12

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

659-706 (1365)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.