Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 73¢ · $840 held · ends Nov 12

Raptors27¢Celtics73¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 57%

Total Value

$840.33

Combined PnL

$0.13

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 73¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors27%

Celtics73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$613.35

Total Shares841

Combined PnL-$14.99

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$226.97

Total Shares841

Combined PnL+$15.11

Celtics — 57%Raptors — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Celticsavg 74.8¢	$482	$470.12	-$11.88	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
VE VenusianCTR	Raptorsavg 27¢	$113.13	$113.13	+$0	31% 386-869 (1255)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Raptorsavg 23.4¢	$96.53	$111.47	+$14.94	30% 378-870 (1248)
PA Pan9X<$100	Celticsavg 74.4¢	$84.05	$82.49	-$1.56	48% 668-712 (1380)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Celticsavg 74.3¢	$48.18	$47.01	-$1.17	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
SE sentrio<$100	Celticsavg 75¢	$14.11	$13.73	-$0.38	37% 346-578 (924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 25¢	$2.2	$2.38	+$0.18	31% 381-851 (1232)

38791873984189

Celtics

Invested

$482

Value

$470.12

PnL

-$11.88

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

VenusianCTR

Raptors

Invested

$113.13

Value

$113.13

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

386-869 (1255)

LightParadoxCTR

Raptors

Invested

$96.53

Value

$111.47

PnL

+$14.94

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

Pan9X<$100

Celtics

Invested

$84.05

Value

$82.49

PnL

-$1.56

Record

48%

668-712 (1380)

Flaznorp<$100

Celtics

Invested

$48.18

Value

$47.01

PnL

-$1.17

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

sentrio<$100

Celtics

Invested

$14.11

Value

$13.73

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.18

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.