Spread: Celtics (-8.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
$1.5K
$44.24
58.2¢ → 60.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Raptorsavg 57.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$53.48 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
 VeryLucky888 | Raptorsavg 61¢ | $162.27 | $160.99 | -$1.28 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Celticsavg 41¢ | $153.75 | $146.25 | -$7.5 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 40¢ | $34.89 | $34.46 | -$0.44 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Celticsavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.98 | -$0.02 | 32% 295-621 (916) |
Invested
$1,147.19
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$53.48
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
VeryLucky888Invested
$162.27
Value
$160.99
PnL
-$1.28
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$153.75
Value
$146.25
PnL
-$7.5
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$34.89
Value
$34.46
PnL
-$0.44
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
32%
295-621 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.