Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Raptors (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (40%) · Celtics at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
5
Celtics 40%
2 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$20.63
50.8¢ → 48.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$132.96 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 47¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$207.87 | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $849 | $774.09 | -$74.91 | |
73 739633786CTR | Celticsavg 51¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$60.5 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$99.69 | 53% 1793-1600 (3393) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Celticsavg 50¢ | $250 | $267.5 | +$17.5 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $208.49 | $147.07 | +$5.71 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $73.6 | $74.32 | +$0.72 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 47¢ | $70.5 | $72.75 | +$4.99 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $95.71 | $96.64 | +$0.94 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $12.75 | $12.87 | +$0.12 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
Invested
$2,352.06
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$132.96
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,234.2
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$60.5
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$1,129.82
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$99.69
Record
53%
1793-1600 (3393)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$250
Value
$267.5
PnL
+$17.5
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$208.49
Value
$147.07
PnL
+$5.71
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.71
Value
$96.64
PnL
+$0.94
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$12.75
Value
$12.87
PnL
+$0.12
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.