Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Celtics (60%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-3.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (100%) · Raptors at 41¢ · $293 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
6
Raptors 100%
$293.46
$7.96
36.2¢ → 40.5¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $195.48 | $200.91 | +$5.43 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $46.94 | $48.24 | +$1.3 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 39.1¢ | $18.68 | $19.1 | +$0.43 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $13.14 | $13.51 | +$0.37 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $9.36 | $9.62 | +$0.26 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 37¢ | $1.9 | $2.08 | +$0.18 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
Invested
$195.48
Value
$200.91
PnL
+$5.43
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$46.94
Value
$48.24
PnL
+$1.3
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$19.1
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$13.14
Value
$13.51
PnL
+$0.37
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$0.26
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.18
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.