Spread: Celtics (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (33%) · Celtics at 61¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 33%
$180.83
-$9.96
63.8¢ → 60.5¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Celticsavg 64¢ | $134.4 | $123.9 | -$10.5 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Celticsavg 62.4¢ | $23.72 | $22.99 | -$0.73 | 49% 673-714 (1387) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 41¢ | $17.87 | $17.77 | -$0.1 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 36¢ | $9 | $10.25 | +$1.25 | 45% 267-322 (589) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $3.95 | +$0.05 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $1.98 | +$0.08 | 30% 378-880 (1258) |
Invested
$134.4
Value
$123.9
PnL
-$10.5
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$23.72
Value
$22.99
PnL
-$0.73
Record
49%
673-714 (1387)
Invested
$17.87
Value
$17.77
PnL
-$0.1
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$9
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
45%
267-322 (589)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.08
Record
30%
378-880 (1258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.