Spread: Celtics (-24.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (50%) · Raptors at 98¢ · $1000 held · ended Nov 12

Celtics2¢Raptors98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 50%

Total Value

$999.57

Combined PnL

$14

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 97.9¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Celtics2%

Raptors98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$981.52

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$34.82

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$18.05

Total Shares722

Combined PnL-$20.82

Raptors — 50%Celtics — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Raptorsavg 94.6¢	$930.5	$964.89	+$34.39	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
SE sentrio<$100	Raptorsavg 92¢	$11.5	$11.75	+$0.25	39% 394-619 (1013)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Celticsavg 5.7¢	$20.72	$9.03	-$11.69	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Celticsavg 5¢	$10	$5	-$5	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
RN1<$100	Raptorsavg 94¢	$4.7	$4.88	+$0.17	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 5.1¢	$8.15	$4.02	-$4.13	49% 692-733 (1425)

Flaznorp

Raptors

Invested

$930.5

Value

$964.89

PnL

+$34.39

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

sentrio<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$20.72

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$11.69

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$10

Value

PnL

-$5

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

RN1<$100

Raptors

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.88

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.15

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$4.13

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedRaptors 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.