Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 57%
$1.7K
$112.08
66¢ → 62.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 63%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Celticsavg 66¢ | $991.88 | $1.0K | +$52.6 | 61% 925-593 (1518) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Raptorsavg 33.9¢ | $363.12 | $401.14 | +$38.02 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Raptorsavg 34¢ | $192.33 | $212.29 | +$19.96 | 30% 378-870 (1248) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Celticsavg 67.7¢ | $27.07 | $27.8 | +$0.73 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Celticsavg 64.7¢ | $10.36 | $11.12 | +$0.76 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Celticsavg 64¢ | $4.46 | $4.85 | +$0.38 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 33¢ | $4.95 | $4.58 | -$0.38 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
Invested
$991.88
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$52.6
Record
61%
925-593 (1518)
Invested
$363.12
Value
$401.14
PnL
+$38.02
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
Invested
$192.33
Value
$212.29
PnL
+$19.96
Record
30%
378-870 (1248)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$27.8
PnL
+$0.73
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$11.12
PnL
+$0.76
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.85
PnL
+$0.38
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.58
PnL
-$0.38
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.