Spread: Celtics (-18.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (60%) · Raptors at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 60%
$1.5K
-$69
90.7¢ → 95.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Raptorsavg 90.8¢ | $737.42 | $735.39 | -$2.03 | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 90.7¢ | $684.52 | $564.85 | +$19.83 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
38 38791873984189 | Raptorsavg 90.1¢ | $115.96 | $102.28 | -$13.67 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Celticsavg 9.1¢ | $124.04 | $54.33 | -$69.7 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 13¢ | $14.82 | $11.4 | -$3.42 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
Invested
$737.42
Value
$735.39
PnL
-$2.03
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
RN1Invested
$684.52
Value
$564.85
PnL
+$19.83
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$115.96
Value
$102.28
PnL
-$13.67
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$124.04
Value
$54.33
PnL
-$69.7
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$3.42
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.