Spread: Celtics (-16.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (100%) · Raptors at 94¢ · $653 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
4
Raptors 100%
1 arb excluded
$652.59
$44.97
82.1¢ → 94¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 81.1¢ | $392.53 | $334.37 | +$31.83 | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 85.8¢ | $106.69 | $114.34 | +$7.66 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 79¢ | $225.56 | $109.68 | +$1.57 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 79¢ | $79 | $86 | +$9.9 | |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 18.9¢ | $32.01 | $23.68 | -$8.33 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Raptorsavg 80.9¢ | $83.29 | $88.58 | +$5.29 | 39% 394-619 (1013) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Raptorsavg 79¢ | $25.19 | $5.62 | +$0.19 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
Invested
$392.53
Value
$334.37
PnL
+$31.83
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
RN1Invested
$106.69
Value
$114.34
PnL
+$7.66
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
Invested
$225.56
Value
$109.68
PnL
+$1.57
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.29
Value
$88.58
PnL
+$5.29
Record
39%
394-619 (1013)
Invested
$25.19
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.19
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.