Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (60%) · Raptors at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 60%
$1.6K
$50.53
83.3¢ → 98.6¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 82.3¢ | $503.46 | $603.13 | +$99.66 | 57% 4059-3079 (7138) |
FL Flaznorp | Raptorsavg 82¢ | $633.21 | $586.82 | -$24.39 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
65 6512395314597884 | Raptorsavg 87¢ | $391.16 | $372.54 | -$18.62 | 50% 3301-3258 (6559) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 15.1¢ | $10.1 | $4.72 | -$5.37 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $0.65 | -$0.75 | 31% 412-920 (1332) |
RN1Invested
$503.46
Value
$603.13
PnL
+$99.66
Record
57%
4059-3079 (7138)
Invested
$633.21
Value
$586.82
PnL
-$24.39
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
Invested
$391.16
Value
$372.54
PnL
-$18.62
Record
50%
3301-3258 (6559)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$4.72
PnL
-$5.37
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.75
Record
31%
412-920 (1332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.