Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (69%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 209.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 32¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$135.11
-$0.6
31.1¢ → 31.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 32%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $98.27 | $98.27 | +$0 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $14.26 | $14.26 | +$0 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $9.85 | $9.25 | -$0.6 | 25% 218-637 (855) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $8.37 | $8.37 | +$0 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 31¢ | $4.96 | $4.96 | +$0 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Invested
$98.27
Value
$98.27
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$14.26
Value
$14.26
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$9.25
PnL
-$0.6
Record
25%
218-637 (855)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$8.37
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$4.96
Value
$4.96
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.