Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 203.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 89¢ · $933 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 29%
$933.48
-$73.42
79.4¢ → 89¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 78.5¢ | $426.96 | $418.88 | -$8.08 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 nigiri99 | Overavg 81¢ | $356.85 | $359.15 | +$2.3 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $68.59 | $75.81 | +$7.22 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 21.5¢ | $118.14 | $57.64 | -$60.49 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100 | Underavg 19.2¢ | $25.46 | $9.95 | -$15.51 | 51% 3172-3071 (6243) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $6.27 | $6.93 | +$0.66 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 19¢ | $4.63 | $5.12 | +$0.49 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$426.96
Value
$418.88
PnL
-$8.08
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
nigiri99Invested
$356.85
Value
$359.15
PnL
+$2.3
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
Invested
$68.59
Value
$75.81
PnL
+$7.22
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
RN1CTRInvested
$118.14
Value
$57.64
PnL
-$60.49
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$25.46
Value
$9.95
PnL
-$15.51
Record
51%
3172-3071 (6243)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$6.93
PnL
+$0.66
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$5.12
PnL
+$0.49
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.