Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 201.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 92¢ · $307 held · ended Nov 11

Over92¢Under8¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$306.51

Combined PnL

-$18.19

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$212.92

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$3.82

Under4 traders

Total Value$93.58

Total Shares691

Combined PnL-$22.01

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 82¢	$209.1	$212.92	+$3.82	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$60.85	$62.79	+$1.94	48% 947-1017 (1964)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$45.9	$21.68	-$24.22	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$5.6	$5.78	+$0.17	49% 443-470 (913)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$3.24	$3.35	+$0.1	54% 383-321 (704)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$209.1

Value

$212.92

PnL

+$3.82

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.85

Value

$62.79

PnL

+$1.94

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.9

Value

$21.68

PnL

-$24.22

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.24

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.