Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 199.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 94¢ · $299 held · ended Nov 11

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$299.08

Combined PnL

-$19.51

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 93.5¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$280.72

Total Shares299

Combined PnL+$4.44

Under3 traders

Total Value$18.36

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$23.95

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 85¢	$248.23	$252.67	+$4.44	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 85¢	$28.05	$28.05	+$0	61% 900-577 (1477)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$38.7	$14.19	-$24.51	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$3.17	$3.66	+$0.49	54% 383-321 (704)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 13¢	$0.45	$0.52	+$0.07	34% 233-457 (690)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$248.23

Value

$252.67

PnL

+$4.44

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$28.05

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.7

Value

$14.19

PnL

-$24.51

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.49

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.07

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.